By insisting that aviation’s CO2 emissions represent just 2% of total emissions, the air transport industry has succeeded in conveying the idea that its impact is low, and that we can continue to fly despite the absence of credible decarbonization solutions. This figure, abundantly reported by the press and politicians, is not false in itself [1], but is all about manipulation. We explain why and how.

▶ Minimizing

“Aviation is only 2%”.

2% may not sound like much, but it’s more than most countries! If aviation were a country, it would rank 6th between Japan and Germany, well ahead of France, which accounts for just 1% of global emissions [2].

Would we tolerate a country doing nothing on the pretext that its emissions represent only a few % of global emissions ?

▶ Not taking everything in

“Aviation accounts for only 2% of CO2 emissions”.

The airline industry only talks about the CO2 emitted during flight. That’s basically incomplete !

One must add the CO2 emissions related to kerosene production and distribution, which represent around 20% of the CO2 emitted during a flight.

But above all, it’s not just about CO2 ! CO2 is responsible for only one third of the global warming caused by aviation. The aviation industry “forgets” to include the effects of contrails and induced cirrus clouds, as well as the effects of nitrogen oxide (NOx) derivatives (i.e. the non-CO2 effects).

Adding all this up, the total is 5.9% of global greenhouse gas emissions [3].

▶ Giving global figures

“Aviation only accounts for 2% of global CO2 emissions”.

2% is a global average that bundles developed countries like ours, where a significant segment of the population regularly flies, and poor countries where very few people do. Putting this figure forward, as the French Ministry of Ecological Transition does, is tantamount to erasing the importance of the climatic impact of air transport in developed countries.

In France, aviation contributes not 2%, but 6.8% of CO2 emissions [4], and 15% of total greenhouse gas emissions if we include the omitted elements [5]. That’s almost 2 times the emissions from residential heating [6] !

▶ Ignoring the growing share of its emissions

“Today, aviation accounts for just 2% of global CO2 emissions”.

Not only do aviation emissions make up a significant share of France’s CO2 emissions, but this share is growing steadily and is set to continue to do so. From less than 5% in 2000, it has increased to almost 7% in 2019, and is expected to reach 12% in 2030 (for CO2 alone) [7]. The reason is quite simple: while most other sectors endeavour to reduce their emissions in order to reach the European target of -55% by 2030 [8], the air transport industry considers itself exempted. It is also resists any measures to limit traffic, despite the fact that none of the decarbonization solutions envisaged can be implemented within the timeframe or on the scale compatible with the Paris Agreement [9].

How does Stay Grounded arrive at the 15% figure for aviation’s share of France’s total GHG emissions?

In 2019, aviation from and to French airports emitted 24.4 Mt CO2 (DGAC/Em, p.6). To this must be added 21% for upstream emissions, i.e. 5.1 Mt (DGAC/Calc), 1% for in-flight N2O emissions, i.e. 0.2 Mt CO2e¹, and twice the CO2 emissions for non-CO2 effects, i.e. 48.8 Mt CO2e. A total of 78.6 Mt CO2e.

In 2019, France emitted 443 Mt CO2e of greenhouse gases (Citepa, Table 15). To this must be added emissions from international air (18.7 Mt CO2) and sea (5.5 Mt CO2) transport, i.e. the share attributed to France of consumption by ships and aircraft operating on international routes (Citepa, Table 19), and the non-CO2 effects of aviation (48.8 Mt CO2e, see above). A total of 516 Mt CO2e.

In 2019, aviation’s share of France’s emissions was therefore 15.2% (= 78.6 / 516).

Data source:

1. DGAC/Em : Direction générale de l’aviation civile, juillet 2023, Les émissions gazeuses liées au trafic aérien en France en 2021
2. DGAC/Calc : Direction générale de l’aviation civile, Calculateur d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre de l’aviation
3. Citepa : Centre interprofessionnel technique d’études de la pollution atmosphérique, avril 2021, CCNUCC (NIR) – Le rapport d’inventaire officiel dans le cadre de la Convention Climat

References

[1] ATAG (Air Transport Action Group), 2020 : Aviation: Benefits Beyond Borders. According to ATAG, a coalition of aviation industry organisations and companies, airlines emitted 914 million tonnes of CO2 in 2019, representing 2.1% of global man-made CO2 emissions. (p. 13).
[2] Stay Grounded (2022) : Common destination (p. 14)
[3] Stay Grounded, 2022 : It’s about more than just CO2 https://dev.stay-grounded.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/SG_Factsheet_Non-CO2_2020.pdf
[4] Direction générale de l’aviation civile (DGAC), 2023 : Les émissions gazeuses liées au trafic aérien en France en 2021, p. 7.
[5] See box
[6] Ministère de la transition écologique, 2020 : Les facteurs d’évolution des émissions de CO2 liées à l’énergie en France de 1990 à 2018
(f6 tab in the downloadable data spreadsheet). In 2018, emissions from residential heating in France were 42.4 Mt CO2. That year, CO2e emissions for all air traffic amounted to 75.4 Mt CO2: 23.5 Mt CO2 (DGAC/Em, p. 6) + 4.9 Mt CO2 for upstream + 47 Mt CO2e for non-CO2 effects.
[7] For 2019, DGAC/Em, p. 7. For 2000, calculated using the DGAC method. Also for 2030, based on the optimistic assumption that CO2 emissions from aviation will remain at their 2019 level (traffic growth offset by improved efficiency and so-called sustainable aviation fuels) and that France’s CO2 emissions will be -55% below 1990 levels.
[8] European Commission : Fit for 55
[9] Stay Grounded : Greenwashing Factsheet series